SAN DIEGO — In California, voters are accustomed to supporting lousy ballot initiatives because we believe the alternative to be much worse.
But Prop. 50, a redistricting initiative that attempts to offset what Texas did recently when the Lone Star State redrew five congressional seats to flip them from favoring Democrats to favoring Republicans, takes this concept to new heights. Or rather, new lows.
On Nov. 4, Californians will decide the fate of Prop. 50 in a special election that is estimated to cost taxpayers as much as $200 million.
The measure is on track to win by a country mile. Recently, the Emerson College Poll found that 57% of likely voters supported it. Only 37% were against. And 6% were undecided.
Here's the good stuff: The poll also asked likely voters whether this special round of mid-decade redistricting was a "good idea." As many as 11% of Prop. 50's backers didn't think it was, saying they'd vote "yes" on the initiative but that it was a "bad idea."
Those are my people. They feel stuck between bad choices, and so do I. Only, I don't plan to vote "yes" on Prop. 50.
This puts me out of step with most voters in my home state, many of whom found their way here from other states because of porous borders with Oregon, Nevada and Arizona.
I don't care. Supporters of Prop. 50 who think it's the solution to our redistricting woes are going to create new problems.
Californians will abandon all common sense and support measures that run contrary to what we claim to believe in.
In 2008, voters in the state — including a majority of Democrats — created an independent commission to handle redistricting. Now, the pro-Prop. 50 folks are saying: "Never mind. We got this."
Ironically, the initiative may well backfire and harm the interests of the very people it is supposed to empower.
The same thing is true in Texas. The big difference is that — unlike California, which has an independent commission established by voters that Democrats have to circumvent to get their way — Texas allows redistricting to be done by the Republican-controlled state legislature. So, in that case, there was very little common sense to abandon.
In August, on marching orders from President Donald Trump, Texas Republicans reluctantly did something they didn't want to do: They reshuffled the cards in a poker game they were winning. They created five new congressional districts that are assumed to favor Republicans, and they did away with five districts that used to favor Democrats.
But there's a catch. Four of those districts are majority Latino, including the 35th Congressional District near San Antonio which is 57% Latino and the 9th Congressional District in East Houston which is 62% Latino.
How do I say this politely? Texas Republicans are idiots. When it comes to their understanding of Latino voting patterns, they're a couple tacos short of a combination plate.
Yes, 48% of Latinos voted for Trump in the 2024 election. But no, that support is not transferable to any run-of-the-mill Republican who runs in those districts for the next 10 years.
Two things will happen in Texas as sure as blue bonnets are going to blossom in the spring: Latino voters are going to swing back to the Democratic Party, at least for the next few years, and those Latinos are going to help Democrats flip the new Republican seats.
Back in California, where the population is about 40% Latino, Democrats are — with the help of Prop. 50 — making the exact opposite bet. They want to create five new Democratic districts, most of which will be majority Latino.
And what's going to happen? The same thing that will happen in Texas, only in reverse. Latinos in California will continue to migrate away from the Democratic Party. They might not vote Republican because the GOP brand is so toxic following the immigration raids. But they're no longer dependable Democratic voters.
After all this effort and expense, the balance of power in Congress between the country's two most populous states will likely shake out to be pretty much what it is now.
While the current redistricting system is broken, bipartisan shenanigans won't fix it.
In both Texas and California, condescending white people with Sharpies are staring at maps and using Latinos to get what they want.
This doesn't need to be so complicated. Elected officials could just go out and ask Latino voters what they need, and then give it to them.
That approach makes sense. So, increasingly, it has no place in politics.
To find out more about Ruben Navarrette and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Photo credit: Element5 Digital at Unsplash
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